Euro2020 – The final crescendo
Come Sunday evening in Wembley, England – two teams will fight each other to become the champions of Europe. It will be a battle between two European giants – Italy vs England. Will this be a fight between equals ? Will this be a pulsating 90 / 120 minutes pf pulsating soccer ? Well, time will answer those questions – but here’s an attempt to try and analyse how the teams will play and who is likely to come out winners.
Equal teams, but still there is a difference
If we analyse the basic game parameters between England and Italy, we will see that their performances has been almost at par with each other. Yes, Italy has been playing the flamboyant style of football which is pleasing to the eye compared to cagey, technical game of England, but then who cares about the style, as long as the team wins!
Both teams uses wing plays to harass their opponents, both have their most of the actions generated in the middle third of the pitch. Italy had been trying comparatively more shots at goal – however, that is nullified with the fact that shots on target (which is more important) is again equal.
However, if you compare the potential first XI players one to one, I am having the opinion that England has the edge over Italy. England’s attacking players are having more quality – and while Italy’s back line seems to have more experience with Chellini and Bonucci, their average age (and hence slowness) will be higher than the English players.
Further, Italy team is in a transition stage after their disastrous performance in 2018 world cup qualifiers. In comparison, England has been struggling to perform in the big tournaments and while that extra pressure will be lying on their heads, they are having an excellent bench strength with a plethora of players who can actually come to the first eleven of any other team, including Italy’s.
So, on paper, England definitely has the edge over Italy.
Tactics for the finals
Now coming to tactics and technicalities associated with modern football, I personally feel that England is strongly placed comparatively to Italy. Let me explain the rationale behind my thinking.
As seen in the chart in the earlier sections, Italy’s attacks had been more from the left hand side because of the excellent performance of the wing back Spinazzola who fed and combined with Insigne on the left to create more danger in the final third. Now, with Spinazzola out of the team with injury, the sting from the left hand side has gone, inspite of his replacement Emerson trying his best in the semi-finals. Remember, Emerson haven’t even played many games throughout the entire season
On the other hand, if we see how England neutralised their strong opponents Germany in the knock-out matches, their side backs through Walker and Trippier did bottle out German wing players of Kimmich & Gosens and Germany (who played similar wing play like Italy) were neutralised by a great extent. This has been possible because of the quality players England has both in their defensive positions
So, my tactical predictions will be:
The battle will be in the mid-field. Whoever controls that zone is likely to control the outcome of the match. Going by the strengths of the individuals and the teams, England does have the edge on this zone with their tactical play. If I were the manager of these two teams, I would have gone ahead with the formations of : Italy 4-3-3 (with one defensive blocker and two attacking players in the midfield), England 3-5-2 (with two defensive blockers and rest attacking players in the mid-field)
Italy’s main attacking players of Insigne and Veratti operate from the left – without Spinazzola, they are likely to be kept “dry” through their passing game. It will be a key match for Walker of England who will have to play in the right wing back position to stop the duo. While Chiesa operates from the right, because of lack of feed from Lorenzo from Italy, he also is likely to be dried out from the supply lines.
On the other hand, with Sterling on the left wing and Saka on the right wing, England will have two speedy players who by themselves alone, can pierce the defence of Italy. Hence, the Italian side backs will not have the luxury to even venture upfield to help in their attacks, as their plates will be full with Sterling and Saka.
This will lead Italy to think of attacking through the middle with Barella and others. However, to the surprise of many, Declan Rice and Philips of England have been playing in the defensive blocker roles in the middle exceedingly well. What this means that Barella will have a tough time breaking the duo. The other midfielder for Italy is Jorginho, who is more of a central defensive midfielder than a person who can create attacks.
Italy’s strength has been playing quick round of passing from the middle third and then using the wings to penetrate. For that to happen, it is ideal that you get a bit of space in the middle of the pitch to start that play. However, as England did against Germany, they are likely to play a high line defense with extreme press so that Italians do not get the space nor the time to innovate in the middle.
In such scenarios, the alternate option lies in playing long balls over the high defensive line and hope for pace and speed from the strikers to capitalise on the space. Unfortunately, Immobile in the front does not have the space nor does Insigne. It will be alone Chiesa who need to take advantage of such balls, who probably will be marked strongly. Further, Immobile is woefully out of form – which does not bode good for Italy as well. Only hope for Italy will be the dead ball situations and whether they can capitalise on the same.
On the other hand, England has the flexibility and versality to play both long balls as well as fast effective wing plays. Italian defense line, led by Chellini and Bonucci, can be exposed by pace (which Spain did that time and again) and England has that in abundance. So, they won’t surely go for a high line defense – which would allow England to utilise more space for their attacks.
Finally, at the fag end of a long tournament, the bench strength becomes a vital factor to change momentum of matches from 75th minute onwards. England has both the capacity and capability in their bench to bring in players who can turn games in a quick time span of 15-20 minutes. Players like Grealish or Phil Foden can create havoc while attacking; and if England needs to close down on the game, they have effective players like Henderson, Trippier to do so. Italy, on the other hand, do not have such quality players – probably their bench can close down on the game, but I don’t think they can turn the game around in case they are trailing.
England is having that champions “luck”
In terms of the “luck factor”, England will be ahead of Italy on multiple fronts. Firstly, they will be playing in home in front of a 60000 crowd shouting for them. England has been the “lucky” team in many aspects – firstly, apart from one quarter-finals game, they have been playing at home for all the matches, starting from their first group match against Croatia and finally will end their campaign at home in the finals. No other team in the Euro20 has got that advantage.
The home crowd advantage has been a crucial factor in an year ravaged by the pandemic. Big players, big teams gets the extra motivation to play when there are fans playing as the 12th man on the pitch. And also, I have seen for the first time a home nation “jeering” the national anthem of their opponents – isn’t that strange
The second factor that has boded good luck to England is their route to the finals. After their qualifications from the group stage, they have faced one “strong” footballing nation in their route to the finals, viz. Germany. On the other hand, Italy had to fight their nails out to succeed against not just Belgium, but then Spain in order to reach the finals. Any day, the combined effect of Austria, Belgium and Spain will be more than Germany, Ukraine and Denmark.
The third lucky factor is that none of the big players of England has been thrown out of the tournament due to an injury. They have the best possible XI out in the middle to fight it out. Comparatively, Italy has lost out on Spinazzola, one of the best players not just in Euro20, but definitely for their team.
Finally, there have been moments of “divine interventions” from the match officials, specially during the semi-finals when a diving Sterling “earned” a penalty at a time, when there were two balls on the pitch ! But as they say, fortune favours the brave?
Conclusion
If I have to bet on this game, my money will be on England. However, not often, results are obtained only through strategies and tactics; not often the “best team” wins. As a neutral here, my heart goes for Italy, simply because they played more exciting, more eye-soothing brand of football. But my mind goes for England. However, I do not think this will be a great pulsating game to watch – not a game of both teams going all out to win from the beginning.
My prediction is that this will be a cagey, tactical game, which many might feel “bored”, with probably just one goal in the making ! And yes, this can even go to extra time !
Will be extremely happy if I am proved wrong and Italy wins this time :-)