From Europe to US and much more
This week we explore a potential new war in Europe before moving to the US economy. While China is ready to fight for technical supremacy, is the legend of Dwarka city in India just a story?
Is a new war likely to open up between Russia and NATO forces?
A classified report drafted by the German Ministry of Defense was leaked into the media early this year. The document outlines potential scenarios for the escalation of the conflict in the region of Suwalki at the border between Poland & Belarus.
The sequence of forecasted events as mentioned in the leaked document is given below:
It suggests that Russia could initiate a new phase of mobilization, conscripting an additional 200,000 troops in February 2024. Subsequently, Russia might aim to weaken Ukrainian positions along the line of contact during a spring offensive.
In July 2024, the report speculates that Russia could engage in covert cyber-attacks and hybrid warfare in Europe, while also agitating Russian-speaking minorities in Baltic countries.
This could lead to a political crisis in the Baltics, potentially justifying a large-scale military exercise involving at least 50,000 Russian troops in Belarus and western Russia in September.
In October, Russia might escalate tensions about an imminent NATO attack and increasing troop deployments in Belarus, as well as transferring medium-range missiles to its Kaliningrad enclave.
The end goal, according to the report, could be the occupation of the Suwałki Gap—the land bridge between Belarus and Kaliningrad.
The report suggests that Russia may wait until the U.S. election to enter the second phase of its plan, anticipating a period of vulnerability for the U.S. government. This could involve instigating artificial border conflicts and riots around the Suwałki Gap in December 2024.
As tensions escalate, Poland and the Baltic countries may seek assistance from NATO, which could lead to accusations from Moscow in January 2025 of Western aggression against Russia.
By March 2025, the report envisions Russia positioning over 70,000 troops near NATO borders in Belarus.
By May 2025, NATO might implement "credible deterrence measures" to prevent a Russian invasion of Poland and the Baltics, leading to a potential war in the region.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has already warned that Germany may have only a limited time—5 to 8 years—to prepare for such a conflict, suggesting a potential need to reconsider compulsory military service.
Concerns about ever-increasing US debt being echoed by another entity
The U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) recently released an article expressing profound concerns regarding the escalating US debt, titled "A Warning About the Nation’s Fiscal Health," emphasizing the gravity of the issue at hand.
Projections indicate that the national debt is poised to increase at a rate twice as fast as the growth of the economy over the next three decades, reaching a size nearly equivalent to the entire US economy.
As of the conclusion of Fiscal Year 2023, the public debt stood at approximately 97% of the gross domestic product (GDP).
The audit report underscores persistent challenges in the processes employed for the preparation of financial statements and the accounting of transactions between federal agencies.
Notably, long-standing financial management issues endure within the Department of Defense, where the accounting for transactions between federal agencies remains inadequate.
Furthermore, the Small Business Administration faces financial management deficiencies in its pandemic relief programs.
The Department of Education encounters challenges with the data utilized to estimate the costs of its loan programs.
The report also sheds light on the ongoing federal payment errors, primarily overpayments, totaling a substantial $236 billion across various agencies and programs.
China’s fight with the US on technological supremacy
Under the leadership of President Xi, China has extended state influence over strategically vital sectors, ranging from semiconductor manufacturing to quantum computing.
Notably, the nation dedicated 3.3 trillion yuan to basic research in the previous year, equivalent to approximately 2.6% of the gross domestic product.
The central government is set to boost investment in scientific and technology research for the year 2024, allocating a 10% increase, totaling 370.8 billion yuan ($51.5 billion). This move is part of a strategy to advance national champions and empower enterprises to take a central role in driving technological progress.
China faces a multitude of challenges in the current year, including the need to counteract a US initiative aimed at impeding its advancements in critical technologies such as chips and artificial intelligence (AI), which are integral to the country's future.
The semiconductor industry encounters growing obstacles as local chip manufacturers grapple with acquiring essential equipment to ascend the technology hierarchy.
Simultaneously, developers are experiencing limitations, unable to access advanced Nvidia Corp. chips that have become the industry standard for training and hosting generative AI platforms similar to ChatGPT.
Does the legendary city of Dwarka exist?
Dwarka, steeped in legend as the legendary city submerged under the Arabian Sea during the departure of Lord Krishna, heralding the onset of the Kali Yuga, has been the subject of a quest for its submerged mysteries since the 1930s, initiated by Hiranand Shastri.
The first comprehensive excavation took place in 1963, laying the foundation for subsequent marine archaeological endeavors.
In the period between 1983 and 1990, meticulous excavations conducted by marine archaeologists brought to light a trove of ancient artifacts and the submerged remnants of Dwarka.
Among the discoveries were a fortified foundation, stone blocks, pillars, stone anchors, and irrigation streams, believed to be integral components of the ancient city walls of Dwarka, as per assessments by UNESCO.
Material scrutiny and carbon dating of man-made objects recovered from the Dwarka seabed disclosed structures from pre-Harappan times, adding substantial weight to the argument for the historical authenticity of Dwarka.
The onshore explorations of 1969-70 yielded numerous potsherds spanning periods from Late Harappan to the Medieval era, placing the remains in a timeframe between 1900 BC and 1300 BC.
According to the findings of archaeologist SR Rao, the submerged site of Dwarka provides archaeological evidence affirming the existence of a city-state, accompanied by a couple of satellite towns, dating back to approximately 1500 BC.